by Jeff Parzych
The countdown has officially begun. This year’s NHL Entry Draft, to be held on the 21st and 22nd of June at the Gaylord Entertainment Center in Nashville, is less than one week away. At this point it is crunch time as teams make final preparations, all of them buoyed by the optimism that the annual draft can bring.
The throngs of fans that follow each and every team share that optimism. Come Saturday, the playing field is totally level, with each and every club starting from square one. That’s what make the draft so interesting and also what fuels so many discussions in the days leading up to the big day.
Everyone has an opinion on who his or her team should select. It is the one time of the year where fans can role-play a little. Placing themselves in their respective team’s war room, armed with the power to change the future of one player and quite possibly, an organization.
As far as the Columbus Blue Jackets are considered, there is no clear-cut consensus on who they should select with their first round pick, the fourth selection overall. The only thing that seems to have been decided, by the fans without a doubt and also from all indications the Columbus brass, is that the player they select will be a forward. This very well may be a mistake.
Before you totally dismiss this idea, read on a little. Without question to characterize the Blue Jacket offense as “needing some help” is a massive understatement and surely the temptation to select a bookend type forward to go along with last year’s top selection Rick Nash must be pretty strong, but first examine the facts.
When you look at an organizational depth chart for Columbus the first thing that jumps out at you is the alarming lack of depth at the defensive position. Granted, one thru four they are fairly strong with Spacek, Richardson, Lachance, and Klesla, but even with that group red flags go up.
The duo of Richardson and Lachance, the bulk of last year’s free-agent bonanza, are on the downside of their careers. Both are still serviceable d-men, but even after adding the 34 year-old Richardson and the 30 year-old Lachance, Columbus allowed eight more goals than the previous season.
That brings us to Duvie Westcott. Last year’s sensation recently put his signature on a two-year guaranteed contract that makes him the probable number five man on the blue line. Columbus could do much worse than Westcott at number five, but let’s remember he has only appeared in 43 NHL games at this point so by no means is he a lock.
After Westcott, that is where the situation gets a bit murky. Jean-Luc Grand Pierre, Derrick Walser, Jamie Allison. Not exactly a who’s who among defensive players in the league and Columbus needs one of them just to have six blueliners to dress.
The situation doesn’t seem to get any better down on the farm as Syracuse, the Jackets AHL affiliate, suffers from the same lack of depth. This season, providing he doesn’t start the year in Columbus, Paul Manning should be one of the leaders on the Crunch defense. He made some nice strides last season and also impressed the Jacket brass during an eight-game recall in January.
He should be joined in Syracuse by the highest-rated defensive prospect for Columbus, Aaron Johnson. The Blue Jackets fourth selection, 85th overall in 2001, makes the jump to the pro ranks after four stellar seasons in the QMJHL. He is maybe the lone bright spot on the horizon for the Columbus defense, despite being a basically unproven commodity.
One wild card may be the hulking Pauli Levokari. Acquired by Columbus in a trade with the Atlanta Thrashers, the 6’7”, 260 pound Levokari went thru quite a metamorphosis last year in Syracuse.
After spending a long stretch in Head Coach Gary Agnew’s doghouse for his passive play, Levokari returned to the lineup with a vengeance and displayed the style of play befitting the giant that he is. If he can continue to develop at that pace, he may be a pleasant surprise.
That is where the cupboard starts to get bare. There are players like the veteran Darrel Scoville or second year performers like Tyler Sloan and Scott Heffernan, but at this juncture do the Jackets want to rely on wild cards like Levokari and unproven talent like Sloan, Heffernan, and even Johnson for that matter.
Probably not and a quick look at the last few Stanley Cup Champions will tell you why. Two years ago you had the Colorado Avalanche with the likes of Ray Bourque, Rob Blake, and Adam Foote. The year after that it was the Detroit Red Wings with Chris Chelios, Nicklas Lidstrom and Steve Duchesne. This past season the New Jersey Devils captured Lord Stanley and Scott Stevens, Scott Niedermayer, and Brian Rafalski all received the opportunity to hoist North America’s oldest trophy high above their head.
If you are noticing a pattern here that is no mistake. As the saying goes “defense wins championships” and it rings true in hockey just as it does in football.
On the flip side, the cupboard is far from bare as far as forwards are concerned. Joakim Lindstrom, Tim Jackman, Andrej Nedorost, Kent McDonell and the skyrocketing Tim Konsorada dot the horizon. You also can’t ignore prospects like Jeff Genovy, Tyler Kolarik, and Raffaele-Pierre Sannitz, who even though they are a bit younger, hold some promise for the future.
By no means does that list constitute that Columbus is set as far as offensive talent is concerned. It just leads one to believe that the need is greater on the blue line, where finding a so-called stud is much harder to do than at forward.
So for the sake of argument, let’s just say this article has swayed the Jackets and they have set their sights on the blue line. Whose name should they write on that index card come Saturday? With Columbus holding the number four selection, a few names, barring a trade down situation (which could be a distinct possibility) are candidates.
The first has to be the hard-nosed Ryan Suter. Scouts seem to be torn on the 6’1”, 183 pound Suter, who is the nephew of long-time NHL’er Gary Suter. Some in the know regard him as the best player in the draft and one that may be the closest to being NHL ready.
Being rated as high as number five overall by The Hockey News and as low as 18 by the Red Line Report attest to the fact that not everyone is in agreement on how high this Wisconsin native should go. One thing they can agree on is the fact that Ryan should be a solid #1 or #2 d-man for years to come regardless of when he is selected.
Another possibility has to be Portland blueliner Braydon Coburn. The 6’5”, 205 lb. Coburn is the top rated defenseman by Central Scouting and number seven overall by both The Hockey News and Red Line Report.
Why this enormous defenseman is rated so high is no surprise. Like Suter, most scouts believe that his defensive play is already up to NHL level. Many also believe that his offensive game is underrated due to the fact that he played for a less than explosive Portland team.
Another possibility and one that was previously mentioned, is that Columbus could decide to trade down. With this draft being called the deepest in years, it would only make sense to try and trade down. The problem there is that because this current pool of prospects is so deep, teams are hesitant to give up anything for the opportunity to move up.
An ideal scenario would have Columbus trading down to say 15-20 in the first round and picking up a solid defenseman in return, one that may fill the role as the sixth defenseman for the Jackets. That way they receive some help on the blue line and still can select a quality forward in the first round.
Of course all of this is pure speculation. That is what makes the draft such exciting theatre. So tune in to see what actually transpires and if, by chance, it is actually a defenseman who receives the opportunity to model a Blue Jacket sweater on Saturday, try and remember it very well may be for the best.